Watching as the Cardinals prepared to file into the conclave this morning I couldn't help thinking that speculation about a new Pope that focuses primarily on the growth of the Church in Africa and Latin America may be way off the mark. Growth is good and by and large the Church is thriving in these areas. Won't the Cardinals be more inclined to elect a Pope from the West to address the shortage of clergy, the drop in Church attendance and the rise of secular humanism? These problems haven't quite reached crisis levels in the U.S. but Catholicism in Europe is in dire straits. The U.S. is home to only 6% of the world's Roman Catholics, but the West sets the cultural tone for the rest of the world, and conservatives - who make up the majority of the voting Cardinals - see the rise of secular humanism as a major threat to the faith.
The new Pope can, of course, be effective regardless of where he comes from, but I wonder if the Cardinals won't want to send a clear message to the world with their choice. Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras would probably make an excellent Pope - and a Central or South American Pope might be better poised to address the issue of many Latino-Americans joining Protestant churches - but I can't help but think that a conclave of conservative Cardinals will be more likely to embrace tradition by electing a European Pope. Cardinal Ratzinger is too controversial and would seem to only have a shot if the conclave deadlocks until enough time has passed to change the vote to a simple majority. Cardinal Tettamanzi would seem to suffer from being a front-runner while Cardinal Schönborn is probably seen as too young. I don't like to speculate about this kind of thing too much but I'm guessing that the next Pope will be a European whose name isn't on the "papabile" list, or at least not near the top. In any case, if you believe that the Cardinals are being guided by the Holy Spirit, it's probably safe to expect the unexpected.